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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Canning, Western Australia
Named for: Alfred Canning (1860-1936), WA government surveyor
South of Perth: Byford, Halls Head, Mandurah, Pinjarra, Roleystone
Enrolment at 2019 election: 107,182
Enrolment at 2022 election: 115,165 (+07.6)
1999 republic referendum: No 67.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.2
2023 Voice referendum: No 76.3
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Sitting member:
Hon Andrew Hastie (Liberal): Elected 2015 by-election, 2016, 2019, 2022
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.6%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8%
2015 by-election Liberal majority over Labor: 5.3%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.8%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 3.6%
2025 Notional Liberal majority over Labor: 1.2%
Status 2022: Very marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Jordan Cahill
Aust Greens |
Jarrad Goold
Aust Labor Party |
Hon Andrew Hastie
Liberal Party |
Fernando Bove (One Nation)
John Carey (Citizens)
Division of Canning
Canning was created in 1949, as a rural seat covering the southern part of the WA Wheat Belt. On these boundaries
it was a very safe non-Labor seat, which changed hands several times between the Liberal Party and the Country Party.
The 1980 redistribution turned it into an outer suburban seat based in Perth's south-eastern suburbs, and it has been
politically marginal ever since. More recently it has been expanded to the south to take in the retirment centres of
Mandurah and Dawesville.
Since 1980 Canning has been a typical outer suburban mortgage belt seat, dominated by traditional families with children and
mortgages, and thus sensitive to interest rates and other economic issues. It also has one of the highest proportions
of immigrants from the UK of any electorate. The Mandurah area has a large population of people over 65.
Don Randall, previously member for
Swan, defeated Labor's
Jane Gerick in 2001, and held the seat until his death in
2015. He was given a scare when the popular former state minister
Alannah MacTiernan ran against him in 2010, but
he won his largest ever majority in 2013.
The 2016 redistribution removed Labor-voting Armidale and
Thornlie from the seat, while adding coastal territory near Mandurah, shifting the balance of the seat towards the
coastal zone and away from the suburbs. The 2021 redistribution removed rural areas around Pinjarra, slightly reducing the
Liberal majority. The 2024 redistribution has reduced it further by removing Byford and Waroona.
Andrew Hastie, Liberal MP for Canning since the 2015 by-election which followed Randall's death, was an Australian
Army officer for eight years, serving in Afghanistan. He has made a good impression in Canberra, and was chair of the
prestigious Joint Standing Committee on Intelligence and Security from 2017. In December 2020 he was appointed
Assistant Minister for Defence. After the Coalition's defeat in 2022 he became Shadow Defence Minister.
The 2022 election saw large swings to Labor in all the Western Australian seats. This was largely due to state issues,
particularly arising from the COVID pandemic. The seat is probably stronger for the Liberals than its current slender
majority suggests. The Labor candidate is Jarrad Gould, a state prosecutor.
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