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Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election 2022
List of seats in pendulum orderThe margins shown here are as calculated by Antony Green.
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Very safe Liberal/National (majority over 16%)
Maranoa, Qld (Nationals over Labor 25.4%)
Groom, Qld (Liberal over Labor 20.5%)
Nicholls, Vic (Nationals over Labor 20.0%)
Farrer, NSW (Liberal over Labor 19.8%) [1]
Riverina, NSW (Nationals over Labor 19.5%)
Cook, NSW (Liberal over Labor 19.0%)
Barker, SA (Liberal over Labor 18.9%)
Mitchell, NSW (Liberal over Labor 18.6%)
New England, NSW (Nationals over Labor 17.6%) [2]
Parkes, NSW (Nationals over Labor 16.9%)
Gippsland, Vic (Nationals over Labor 16.7%)
Bradfield, NSW (Liberal over Labor 16.6%)
Safe Liberal/National (majority 12-16%)
Mallee, Vic (Nationals over Labor 15.7%)
Berowra, NSW (Liberal over Labor 15.6%)
Moncrieff, Qld (Liberal over Labor 15.4%)
O'Connor, WA (Liberal over Labor 15.4%)
Lyne, NSW (Nationals over Labor 15.2%)
Dawson, Qld (Nationals over Labor 14.6%)
Forrest, WA (Liberal over Labor 14.6%)
Wright, Qld (Liberal over Labor 14.6%)
Hinkler, Qld (Nationals over Labor 14.5%)
Fadden, Qld (Liberal over Labor 14.2%)
Curtin, WA (Liberal over Labor 13.9%)
Durack, WA (Liberal over Labor 13.5%)
Fairfax, Qld (Liberal over Labor 13.4%)
Calare, NSW (Nationals over Labor 13.3%)
Grey, SA (Liberal over Labor 13.3%)
Mackellar, NSW (Liberal over Labor 13.2%)
Wide Bay, Qld (Nationals over Labor 13.1%)
Hume, NSW (Liberal over Labor 13.0%)
Fisher, Qld (Liberal over Labor 12.7%)
Capricornia, Qld (Nationals over Labor 12.4%)
McPherson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 12.2%)
Fairly safe Liberal/National (majority 8-12%)
Cowper, NSW (Nationals over Labor 11.9%) [3]
Canning, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.6%)
Moore, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.6%)
Bowman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 10.2%)
Wannon, Vic (Liberal over Labor 10.2%)
Aston, Vic (Liberal over Labor 10.1%)
Wentworth, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.8%) [4]
Hughes, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.8%)
Tangney, WA (Liberal over Labor 9.5%)
Page, NSW (National over Labor 9.4%)
North Sydney, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.3%)
Flynn, Qld (Nationals over Labor 8.7%)
Forde, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.6%)
Herbert, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.4%)
Petrie, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.4%)
Marginal Liberal/National (majority 4-8%)
Goldstein, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.8%)
Bonner, Qld (Liberal over Labor 7.4%)
Menzies, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.0%)
Bennelong, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
Monash, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
Sturt, SA (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
Kooyong, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.4%) [5]
Banks, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.3%)
Ryan, Qld (Liberal over Labor 6.0%)
Hasluck, WA (Liberal over Labor 5.9%)
Flinders, Vic (Liberal over Labor 5.5%)
La Trobe, Vic (Liberal over Labor 5.5%)
Pearce, WA (Liberal over Labor 5.2%)
Lindsay, NSW (Liberal over Labor 5.0%)
Brisbane, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.9%)
Deakin, Vic (Liberal over Labor 4.7%)
Casey, Vic (Liberal over Labor 4.6%)
Dickson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.6%)
Leichhardt, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
Robertson, NSW (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
Very marginal Liberal/National (majority below 4%)
Higgins, Vic (Liberal over Labor 3.7%)
Swing needed for Labor majority: 3.3%
Longman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 3.3%)
Reid, NSW (Liberal over Labor 3.2%)
Swan, WA (Liberal over Labor 3.2%)
Braddon, Tas (Liberal over Labor 3.1%)
Boothby, SA (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
Chisholm, Vic (Liberal over Labor 0.5%)
Bass, Tas (Liberal over Labor 0.4%)
Very marginal Labor (majority below 4%)
Macquarie, NSW (Labor over Liberal 0.2%)
Lilley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 0.6%)
Eden-Monaro, NSW (Labor over Liberal 0.8%)
Cowan, WA (Labor over Liberal 0.9%)
Corangamite, Vic (Labor over Liberal 1.0%)
Blair, Qld (Labor over Liberal 1.2%)
Dobell, NSW (Labor over Liberal 1.5%)
Moreton, Qld (Labor over Liberal 1.9%)
Gilmore, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.6%)
Dunkley, Vic (Labor over Liberal 2.7%)
Greenway, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.8%)
Griffith, Qld (Labor over Liberal 2.9%)
Hunter, NSW (Labor over Liberal 3.0%)
Solomon, NT (Labor over CLP 3.1%)
Perth, WA (Labor over Liberal 3.2%)
Parramatta, NSW (Labor over Liberal 3.5%)
Marginal Labor (majority 4-8%)
Richmond, NSW (Labor over Nationals 4.1%)
Shortland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 4.4%)
Paterson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.0%)
Lyons, Tas (Labor over Liberal 5.2%)
McEwen, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.3)
Burt, WA (Labor over Liberal 5.5%)
Lingiari, NT (Labor over CLP 5.5%)
Werriwa, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.5%)
Jagajaga, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.9%)
Macnamara, Vic (Labor over Liberal 6.1%)
Isaacs, Vic (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
Oxley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
Rankin, Qld (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
Hindmarsh, SA (Labor over Liberal 6.5%)
McMahon, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.6%)
Brand, WA (Labor over Liberal 6.7%)
Fremantle, WA (Labor over Liberal 6.9%)
Bruce, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.3%)
Bean, ACT (Labor over Liberal 7.5%)
Fairly safe Labor (majority 8-12%)
Adelaide, SA (Labor over Liberal 8.2%)
Macarthur, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.4%)
Kingsford Smith, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.8%)
Bendigo, Vic (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
Holt, Vic (Labor over Liberal 8.9%)
Barton, NSW (Labor over Liberal 9.4%)
Makin, SA (Labor over Liberal 9.7%)
Hawke, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.2%)
Ballarat, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
Corio, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
Maribyrnong, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
Fenner, ACT (Labor over Liberal 10.6%)
Whitlam, NSW (Labor over Liberal 10.9%)
Hotham, Vic (Labor over Liberal 11.2%)
Kingston, SA (Labor over Liberal 11.9%)
Safe Labor (majority 12-16%)
Franklin, Tas (Labor over Liberal 12.2%)
Chifley, NSW (Labor over Liberal 12.4%)
Lalor, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.4%)
Gellibrand, Vic (Labor over Liberal 13.0%)
Cunningham, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.4%)
Watson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.5%)
Newcastle, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.8%)
Fowler, NSW (Labor over Liberal 14.0%)
Spence, SA (Labor over Liberal 14.1%)
Gorton, Vic (Labor over Liberal 14.3%)
Blaxland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 14.7%)
Very safe Labor (majority over 16%)
Canberra, ACT (Labor over Liberal 17.1%)
Fraser, Vic (Labor over Liberal 18.1%)
Sydney, NSW (Labor over Liberal 18.7%)
Calwell, Vic (Labor over Liberal 19.6%)
Scullin, Vic (Labor over Liberal 21.7%)
Grayndler, NSW (Labor over Liberal 23.8%) [6]
Wills, Vic (Labor over Liberal 25.9%) [7]
Cooper, Vic (Labor over Liberal 26.3%) [8]
Non-two-party seats
Clark, Tas (Independent over Labor 22.1%)
Indi, Vic (Independent over Liberal 1.4%)
Kennedy, Qld (KAP over Nationals 13.3%)
Mayo, SA (CA over Liberal 5.1%)
Melbourne, Vic (Greens over Liberal 21.8%)
Warringah, NSW (Independent over Liberal 7.2%)
[1] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Independent 10.9%
[2] Actual two-candidate majority: Nationals over Independent 14.4%
[3] Actual two-candidate majority: Nationals over Independent 6.8%
[4] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Independent 1.3%
[5] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Greens 5.7%
[6] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 16.3%
[7] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 8.2%
[8] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 14.6%
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